Since the Coronavirus Lockdown started, crime has changed, and not always in the way we may have expected. Some news would have it that crime has dropped, and that is a common perception, but this is only partially correct. You are now vulnerable in different ways and you need to understand how things are moving.
An unwanted record
In the UK in the 12 months before the Coronavirus outbreak, we had just reached broken an unwanted record. There are now more stabbings and knife crime than before. Proportionally as a percentage of the population you are actually less likely to be a victim of such crimes, but the gross figure is up and we are highly conscious of it.
One of the key drivers of this crime has been drug dealers, and county lines operations. The name refers to criminal activities, where drug dealers export their drugs from their own locations, normally cities, to outer suburbs and other parts of the country. It is called county lines operations because the export of the drugs is literally across county boundaries and areas. Setting up in a new town hall location, dealers seek out vulnerable people who they can pressurise and control. They will take charge of their homes, by what is called Cuckooing, and direct their activities. County lines operations are large criminal business operations, and they are backed up with violent enforcement and protection.
The good news is that county lines operations have dropped.
The lockdown has caused a change in the way that much of the criminal activity I have described so far, is conducted. It has made county lines travel more noticeable and therefore less secure. Dealing in open and less crowded places has been far more obvious to the police, and dealers have curtailed many of the activities. Curtailed but not stopped. Simultaneously there has been a reduction in violent assaults and knife crime on the streets of our country.
Increased Domestic Abuse
The bad news is that violence has not stopped, it has migrated.
Domestic abuse helplines have received approximately 30% more calls than they would have expected over the same time period last year. Calls to the national child abuse helpline are up 20. The police estimate that domestic homicides have increased threefold. Victims have literally been enclosed with their abusers. Some have termed it, locking the prey in with the predator.
The pressure of living on top of one another has caused some, who otherwise may not have been drawn in, to resort to violence. The lockdown does not excuse such violence. It does however help us to understand why it is happening. As any lockdown relaxes there will be an increase in divorces and the break-up of numbers of relationships.
There is no single source of the violence, although men are more likely to be the abusers, and there has been a noticeable rise in attacks by teenagers on adults.
Domestic abuse is generally, but not completely, the act of individuals and family groups, rather than organised crime gangs, which it why it can be so difficult to identify. Politicians and campaigners have been working hard to escalate and improve our understanding of domestic abuse, and the support we need to bring make available to its victims.
Absence gives criminals opportunities
During this period, organised crime has not gone away. Already we have seen an increase in attempted fraud. Fraudsters have sought to assume the role of banks, television licensing authorities, and other official organisations, so that they may scam money from worried victims.
The need for cyber security around the home and a very healthy suspicion if anybody asks you for banking details, remains high.
In the United States, car theft and business robberies have increased. This is in a large part down to the reduced likelihood of being spotted because roads, streets, towns and cities are so much quieter. Statements of a couple of weeks ago by people like the Mayor of New York, Bill de Blasio, that crime had dropped to 1950’s levels, no longer appears accurate.
Criminal gangs will continue to seek out vulnerabilities and opportunities in businesses and individuals while any lockdown goes on. They will concurrently be planning for the resumption of their other activities as the situation relaxes.
With any relaxation of the Lockdown
There are three things we can expect when any elements of the current lockdown are relaxed.
Your Stage has had a makeover
The stage is literally the physical environment and the people that you interact with as you go about your daily activities, whatever they may be. It has undergone a massive makeover and has changed.
The people that you meet, may be more conservative in their approach to one another. There is likely to be fewer people around and about, and the way you move between one another will change, with each individual. That means that the natural understanding and awareness you have developed over years with crowds and groups of people may no longer fit comfortably with how people are acting. People who you may have expected to rely on, may not be so forthcoming, and predators may see opportunity in the changed situation.
Your physical environment has also changed. Shops, café’s, restaurants and bars may well still be shut. Places that you sought refuge, even just to rest your tired feet and get a refreshing cup of tea will not be available.
In the worst case scenario, places where you would depend upon for shelter and help will not be available. You will need to look at your physical environment as if discovering it for the first time.
The vacuum will close
Drugs dealers will push hard to recover county lines operations. Their absence in the current situation has created a vacuum in some places which means there is likely to be a rush to re-occupy that area.
Any remaining buyers, users, are likely to be keen to re-establish their supply and may not practice supplier loyalty. This may lead to a clash between gangs with a sudden spike in violence. In addition gangs may physically force vulnerable people to become involved once more.
Unfortunately this means that we can also expect a return to higher levels of knife crime and physical assaults.
Expect an over reaction
Finally, the return to any type of community activity, will act as a major pressure release valve to many of us. The temptation for a celebration will be high. Whether it be in family groups and small communities, even without access to pubs and bars there will be parties and with that, the opportunity for impromptu violence.
Just imagine the scene. A young couple who haven’t seen each other properly for a couple of months, meet up again. For one of them this is the moment they had been looking forward to, above all else. For the other, the lockdown has presented an opportunity for them to reassess the nature of their relationship, and they decide that it is not what they want. In most cases this will be peacefully settled, but you don’t need too many cases of an argument for one or two of them to spill over into actual violence.
This is, of course, just one example, but the message should be clear to everyone. There will be some over reaction to relaxation in the controls, and with that some will lose control. It maybe they have been bearing a grudge and letting it build, it may just be too much to drink, over-exuberance and a stupid action.
Just be careful around others as everybody starts to re-integrate.
So what does this mean to you?
While the lockdown continues, you are likely to remain relatively safe, unless you are a victim of domestic abuse.
If you are a victim of domestic abuse then you need to speak to somebody straightaway. The National domestic abuse helpline is in operation, helpers are available, and support services are perhaps more aware than ever of the need for rapid response.
Hopefully you are not in an abusive household and so you feel relatively safe and can work from home. You need to make sure you are working online in a safe manner. That means not leaving yourself vulnerable to potential fraudsters. You need to take all of the normal precautions to confirm the people you speak with over the telephone are actually who they purport to be. Do not cut corners.
The golden rule is, if in any doubt check it. There are very very few things in the world which need to be dealt with in the next 20 minutes, and so you do have time to check out anybody asking you for any financial information.
Make sure that your car is properly secured at night and during the daytime, particularly if it’s left on the street and not secured the premises or in a garage. Make sure any security lighting works.
If you are a business owner make sure that you are content with the security you have around your premises. Make use of online camera monitoring and movement detection systems, which are affordable. Check it as regularly as you can to make sure that it continues to function properly.
As any form of lockdown is relaxed, pause to think about how it affects you, your family and any colleagues you work with.
- The world will be different.
- Many will be relieved and happy, but still vigilant about becoming contaminated.
- People will behave differently.
- People you know well, will behave differently.
- Many people will have new worries. Some will seek to get away from them by turning to criminal activity.
- Look at your environment as though discovering it for the first time.
- Work out how best to use transport.
- Identify where you can go to if you need to get help or find a safe place.
- Avoid completely isolated areas where you can.
- Carry your phone with you whenever you are out.
- Work hard to stay in control of what happens to you. Use Street Safe Thinking.
If you would like to speak to anybody about personal security please email: help@streetsafethinking.com.
